A Transitional Year Ahead of Us
Time flies when there are a lot of twists and turns in politics. It has been the case in the United States for the last little while. Biden administration’s first term, as well as the continued saga led by the republicans and their lone “guru”, Donald J. Trump, has been on the news non-stop. Every time we think Trump is about to quit, and go back to being the TV star and business man he once was, he comes roaring back for more attention.
Twenty twenty-three will be a decisive year for the future of the country (as well as the future of democracy). We may even know, thankfully, if Biden decides to retire or to run in the 2024 presidential election, despite his age and lack of stamina. Considering all of that, the actual president would like nothing more than to have a rematch against Trump.
It isn’t the issues or the drama that are missing at the moment. The what we could call “soap opera” is only starting, especially that COVID is not entirely behind us.
A New Looking Congress
We are entering a new year, and Biden’s second half of his first mandate, in a different place than at the beginning of this ongoing presidential mandate. Despite disappointing results for the republicans during the midterms in November, the party managed to save the day by regaining control of the House of Representatives. Let’s just say that everyone, the polls and the analysts, got it wrong; they were predicting a red wave that didn’t materialize.
The Democrats kept the Senate, even with Senator Kyrsten Sinema (Arizona) becoming an independent in early December. We also finally got a result in the well-mediatized Georgia Senate Race- with the win of Raphael Warnock over the confusing star-candidate Hershel Walker.
With the Congress split, it means that it will be harder for the Biden administration to advance key legislations forward that will define his legacy as president. It will be different than what we have gotten used to these last two years, especially with the rise in polarization, which is more present than ever. A government shutdown may be on the horizon because of the issue of government spending and its management. Also, it will be interesting to see if republicans and democrats agree on the financial aid that should be going to Ukraine?
On the other hand, both parties might find that a divided government is a good opportunity to reach out to the other side, make compromises and reach unexpected results, or else no bills will be put forward. It all depends on the leadership at the top of the Republican Party, and who is better placed to work with the opposite’s side. In this case, for the better of the country, republicans would be crazy to not choose Ron DeSantis over Trump.
His name isn’t circulating at the moment, but we shouldn’t exclude a Paul Ryan comeback, given his notoriety and the fact that he could convince some democrat voters to join the big republican tent. He has the communications ability to be a main contender in a race for the GOP nominee, given his experience as House Leader, as well as Mitt Romney’s running mate in 2012.
For the moment, the two parties are so far apart on key issues, like gun laws, abortion or race theories- with the republicans using more and more of the “anti-woke” narrative at their advantage to ridicule the most progressive branch of the Democratic Party. Voters can identify with some aspects that are considered “woke” (par example. The Black Lives Matter movement and the importance of addressing the race inequalities in America) but won’t go as far as to “cancel” everyone who held a controversial opinion decades ago.
Recession and Inflation: Advantage Republicans
Every single election is about the economy, jobs, and the cost of living. Voters don’t really care about foreign affairs and social issues. Now that we are less worried about the pandemic, even though the virus is still circulating and we could be faced with variants sooner rather than later, all our focus is on the economic repercussions that we are faced with.
It is without any surprises that we are now dealing with historic inflation rates, which is now at more than 7%, partly because of all the financial help needed in the midst of the public health crisis. However, things seem to be heading into the right direction with the inflation rate slowing down in the last few months.
The government needed to help part of the population, that goes without saying, just think about small businesses or minimum wage workers. The looming recession (which should happen early in 2023 according to some economists) is causing a lot of anxiety for the Americans, especially because the cost of living is so high, and is hurting certain segments of the population more. But for republicans, it is the recipe that gets them the win in 2024. People would not vote for the republicans, but rather against the liberals. Remember the catch phrase, “It’s the economy stupid”? Well… It still applies to this day.
You always got to connect to the “ordinary” citizens, and what they care about in their daily life. Pleasing the elites and the academics won’t get you very far in politics.
Democracy on the Line?
Anyhow, it is troubling to see a sort of indifference that some American people have in relation to the January 6, 2020, insurrection, as if it wasn’t that big of a deal. Democracy is not yet broken in the country, but having Trump back in the Oval Office in two short years could jeopardize the future of the country, and its influence on the world stage.
The House January 6, 2021, committee had got of people talking when the audience was taking place, but did we truly learn something new out of it? It was sensationalism but we still needed to hear the multiple chronological events that lead to the actual insurrection, and the president crucial role as the protagonist in the story.
The circus is over, time for the republicans to pick a nominee who actually knows what he is doing, and where he wants to go.
There are dyer issues to address, and rights to protect (like reproductive rights for women), Americans cannot go back in time to the four year Trump show. Media would really like it to boost their ratings, but it won’t be to anyone’s advantage.
For now, let’s await the next moves from both parties, the candidates that come forward for the commander in chief’s position, and the never-ending drama that politics bring. Sit back and enjoy the transitional year. Don’t blink, you might miss it. Next thing you know, the primaries are in full force, the debates are taking place, new ideas are emerging, and Americans find themselves yet again in front of grueling choices.
