All Eyes on Iowa
I hope these last few weeks of taking a break from politics (sort of) were worth it and that everyone is now set and ready for the Iowa Democratic caucuses, in a month, on February 3rd.
Last time we witnessed a Democratic debate was a few days prior to Christmas, on December 19, where 7 candidates battled it out at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. On stage, surprisingly and not for the best, 6 out of the 7 candidates were white.
The December debate happened the day following Trump’s impeachment over two charges (abuse of power and obstruction of Congress) by the U.S. House of Representatives; in relation to July’s phone call to Ukraine’s president to investigate Joe Biden and his son Hunter. The president’s impeachment was on everybody’s mind. Fundraising — playing the game of who is the most transparent- was also another hot topic, with Buttigieg being attacked for not disclosing where all of his money was coming from.
What is happening right now is big news because Donald Trump has become the third president in modern history to be impeached, after Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton. And it is to be noted that not one single republican representative has voted in favour of Trump’s impeachment.
The last debate sure sounded different without Kamala Harris, who dropped out of the race on December 3, saying that she lacked the money needed to fully finance the rest of her presidential campaign.
In 2020, the Democratic Party needs to talk to Americans that voted for Trump in 2016. Biden remains the frontrunner but for how long? How much longer before he says something he shouldn’t?
Later, in the primaries, could Michael Bloomberg shuffle the cards? The former mayor of New York City, opposing Medicare for all, is a late bloomer, waiting until the end of November to announce his bid for the presidency. It may just be too little too late for Bloomberg, who could in the near future compete with Biden on centrist political ideas and possibly get the support of middle-class, republican leaning supporters. Bloomberg and Steyer, two billionaires, seem to be depending on money to keep their respective campaigns alive; spending millions in TV ads.
Money and politics make great friends!
The biggest surprise in all the debates has been Andrew Yang emerging as a valuable candidate. Even if he doesn’t speak much during debates; he brings up good ideas that are meant to be explored further by the party. Yang is the only one in the field that is proposing a universal basic income plan that would give every American adult $12,000 a year.
With all of this, don’t count the senator Amy Klobuchar out of the race.
Pete is Gaining Ground
When the Democratic 2020 Presidential started, and lots of names were coming up to replace Hillary Clinton, I wasn’t the biggest Pete Buttigieg fan but my perception has changed. He isn’t the same guy as when he officially launched his bid for the presidency in April 2019. His age (37), or the fact that he doesn’t have any experience in Washington, D.C., doesn’t seem to be affecting him. Buttigieg does well in debates, and he might be what the Democrats need to win back the White House in November, as he isn’t as left-leaning as Warren and Sanders.
Only problem- and I think it’s worth mentioning it- is the fact that he is openly gay. I sure would love to think that I’m wrong and that some Americans won’t judge him on whom he loves.
Nevertheless, the gender of Hillary Clinton was on a lot of analysts’ minds when it came time to dissect what had happened in 2016. Some said that the electorate just wasn’t ready for a female president. Then, if this is the case, why would some Americans be ready for an openly gay president? With all of that said, Buttigieg’s campaign represents a kind of a glass ceiling moment, as he is the second openly gay presidential candidate in a major political party in American history, but the first one going this far.
The first one was Fred Karger, not too long ago, when he was a Republican nomination candidate for the 2012 U.S. Presidential election.
Despite the backgrounds of our elected officials, Pete Buttigieg is gaining momentum and the front-runner Joe Biden has difficulties taking charge of the discussions and he is constantly searching for his words to explain ideas. That said, Biden seems to be able to maintain support from the black community, a big plus for him. A Quinnipiac University poll, says that, as of a few weeks ago, Biden was supported by 51% of black Democrat voters. Maybe part of the reason for this is that he was vice-president to Barack Obama, the first U.S. African-American president.
Pete, the South Bend mayor, expresses his ideas in a brilliant way, he has a military background and knows what he is talking about. Above all, Buttigieg is now leading in Iowa.
He is proposing, on the basis of a democratic reform, to eliminate the Electoral College, the reason why the popular vote never determines the outcome of the general elections. He is also proposing Medicare for all who want it, by not forcing people to get out of their current health care insurance plan if they don’t want to.
Not to be taken lightly, Bernie Sanders remains second in the polls around the country.
The Primary Season
The Iowa caucuses on February 3rd will set the tone for the rest of the primary season, leading to the general election in November. On that date, Democrats from around the state of Iowa will gather around at more than 1,000 precinct locations.
But then how does it all work?
To elect their nominee, the Democratic Party holds primaries and caucuses across all 57 states, districts and territories.
Leading to the summer convention, a subset of states, districts and territories are holding caucuses. In short, this voting process (considered by many as prehistoric politically speaking) is best described by saying that it is an open ballot, in contrast to primaries, where voters cast a secret ballot for their preferred candidate. The last primaries will be held in June.
The purpose of the caucuses is to select partisan delegates who will vote for their candidate at the 2020 Democratic National Convention, from July 13 to 16 in Milwaukee.
The decision to hold caucuses comes from either the state itself or the political party.
On February 3rd, registered Democrats voters will gather at the precinct locations. They will then gather into groups- depending on the candidate they are supporting. The process afterwards is quite complex but it is decided by a “mathematical calculation that determines how many delegates are allocated to each surviving candidate.”
At the 2020 Democratic National Convention, for a candidate to secure the nomination, he or she will need a simple majority of delegates (total of 1,885). This may sound unfamiliar for those who don’t follow American politics on a daily basis, but as you follow the news in the upcoming months, it will become clearer.
A calendar item for everyone will be the next Democratic presidential debate that will be held in The Moines, Iowa, on January 14 (televised on CNN).
